Burnham’s honeymoon period faces its first real test

The latest YouGov poll puts Labour on 27%, followed by the Conservatives on 22% and Reform UK on 20%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens remain on 11% and 10% respectively.

With Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, Labour enjoyed a relatively successful party conference and a sizeable bounce in the polls. The Conservatives have also moved ahead of Reform in YouGov’s polling for the first time since 2024, although the gap remains within the margin of error and no one should read too much into a single poll. Reform’s dip is likely to reflect growing questions over its finances and a series of controversies, most recently involving its councillors, while neither the Greens nor the Liberal Democrats has managed to build any momentum.

There has been growing speculation that Burnham could call a snap election to secure his own mandate. The Autumn Budget involved plenty of tinkering but few dramatic changes, leading some to suggest that it was designed not to disrupt Labour’s steady recovery in the polls. Opposition parties and some in the City are reportedly preparing for the possibility of an election next year.

However, YouGov’s September MRP projected that Labour would remain the largest party but fall from the 411 seats it won in 2024 to 241, leaving it 85 seats short of an overall majority. Although Labour has since improved in the polls, Burnham would still be taking a huge and unnecessary risk by calling an early election, particularly when the government currently has a working majority of 167 to help deliver the changes he wants.

Burnham’s “good vibes” approach has worked so far, but it will wear thin if voters still feel the impact of higher taxes, energy bills and continued cost-of-living pressures. Especially after Burnham entered Downing Street promising hope and a different style of politics. But the rumours of an early election will continue if Labour keeps climbing in the polls, particularly if Burnham’s advisers begin to worry that this may be the best political moment they are going to get.

The Conservatives will continue to take advantage in presenting themselves as the more economically responsible party. However, if they remain around 23%, questions over Kemi Badenoch’s leadership will return. Reform will be hoping to make headlines through its policy announcements rather than further scandals. Meanwhile, the leaders of the Liberal Democrats and Greens are likely to face greater scrutiny if neither they nor their parties begin to improve in the polls.