Elections 2024

There will be local elections in May 2024, and there is likely to be a General Election during the year. This will either be with the local elections in May or in the autumn. The Government could possibly delay until January 2025 but that is thought unlikely.

Local Elections 2023

The Conservative party took a thumping in last year’s (2023) local elections losing over 1,000 councillors and control of 48 councils. For the first time since 2002, Labour is the largest party of local government with 2,674 councillors, as opposed to the Conservatives 2,296 and LibDem 1,628. Although it sounds dramatic, the swing from the Conservatives to Labour, suggested by the polls, did not materialise: compared to the 2019 results, the Conservatives lost just 2.2%, Labour gained 6.5%, the LibDems gained just 0.6%. The polls predicted a greater increase in support for Labour but instead it was shared with the LibDems and the Greens, who had their best ever local election results. There were losses for independent councillors and resident councillors (a fall of 20%).

If these results were transposed into a General Election (according to the BBC), Labour would have a 35% vote share, the Conservatives 26%, and the LibDems 20%. According to Sky News, this would mean Labour would become the largest party but 28 seats short of an overall majority, which would mean a coalition government. Since May, the political polls have reported a widening of the gap between the two main parties in favour of Labour.

Local elections 2024

Below the current national position, and a list of councils in our operating area (south east, East Anglia, south and east midlands) with details of this year’s local elections, the current balance of power and the administration. As we get closer to the local elections, we  will produce predictions for key councils.

If you have any councils where you would like more detailed analysis, please contact us (planning@chelgate.com).

 

National Government

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The national government’s five years in power will expire in January 2025. A General Election is likely to be called at some point during 2024. The Conservatives form the government with a majority of 56. The current seats in Parliament are as follows:

• Conservative: 350
• Labour: 198
• Scottish National Party: 43
• Independent: 18
• Liberal Democrats: 15
• Democratic Union Party: 8
• Sinn Fein: 7
• Plaid Cymru: 3
• Alba Party: 2
• Social Democratic & Labour Party: 2
• Green: 1
• Alliance: 1
• The Reclaim Party: 1
• Speaker: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Bedfordshire

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Bedford Borough: The whole council is elected every 4 years, with the next election in 2027. At the 2023 election, the council remained under no overall control, with no change in administration. The distribution of power is as follows:

• Labour: 14 
• Conservative: 13
• Liberal Democrats: 13
• Green: 3
• Independent: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Central Bedfordshire: The whole council is elected every 4 years. The next election is due in 2027. The distribution of power at the recent 2023 election is as follows:

• Conservative: 20
• Independent: 27
• Liberal Democrats: 10
• Labour: 5

There was a change in administration at the last election, from a Conservative majority to an Independent one.

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Berkshire

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Bracknell Forest: The whole council is elected every 4 years, with the next elections in 2027. At the last elections (2023), there was a change in administration with the Labour group taking control of the council. The Conservative group lost 27 seats with Labour gaining 18 seats, the Liberal Democrats gaining 7 and the Greens gaining 2. The current balance of power is:

• Labour: 22
• Conservative: 7
• Liberal Democrats: 7
• Green: 2

Prediction for 2024: No election

Reading: A third of the council is elected every year for three consecutive years, with the fourth year off. The next elections are due in May 2024. 17 of the 48 seats on the council were up for election in the 2023 election, which kept the political balance fairly stable. Labour gained 1 seat from the Conservatives, while the Green, Lib Dem and Independent seat share did not change. Labour retained their majority, with no change in administration. The political balance is as follows:

• Labour: 32
• Green: 7
• Conservative: 5
• Liberal Democrats: 3
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Slough: For the first time the entire council was up for election; previously, a third of the council had been elected three years out of every four. The next election is due in 2027. Against the national trend, the Conservatives made substantial gains, resulting in a change in administration from the Labour-controlled council. The Conservatives gained 15 seats, Labour lost 15, including the leader’s the Lib Dems gained 3, while Independents candidates lost all 3 of their seats. The political balance is as follows:

• Conservative: 21
• Labour: 18
• Lib Dems: 3

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

West Berkshire: The entire council is elected every four years, with the next election in 2027. At the 2023 election, the Liberal Democrats took control of the council, which had been under a Conservative majority since 2005. There was as such a change in administration. The Lib Dems gained 13 seats, the Conservatives lost 13, the Greens lost 1 and Labour gained their only seat. The distribution of power is as follows:

• Liberal Democrats: 29
• Conservatives: 11
• Green: 1
• Labour: 1

Prediction for 2024: No election

Windsor & Maidenhead: The council is elected as a whole every 4 years, with the next scheduled election in 2027. At the 2023 election, there was a change to administration, with the Liberal Democrats won a majority, taking control from the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats gained 13 seats, the Conservatives lost 16, the Borough First party gained 4, the Residents and Flood Prevention parties remained stable, and the Independents lost their only seat. The balance of power is as follows:

• Liberal Democrats: 22
• Conservatives: 7
• Borough First: 7
• Residents: 4
• Flood Prevention: 1

Prediction for 2024: No election

Wokingham: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. At the 2023 election, the council remained under no overall control, but the Liberal Democrats overtook the Conservatives to become the largest party. There was no change in administration. The Conservatives lost 4 seats, with the Lib Dems gaining 3 and Labour 2.

The distribution of power is as follows:

• Liberal Democrats: 26
• Conservatives: 22
• Labour: 5
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024.

Buckinghamshire

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Buckinghamshire: The inaugural elections for Buckinghamshire Council took place in 2021. The next scheduled elections are 2025. The Conservatives hold a strong majority.

The distribution of power is as follows:

• Conservative: 113
• Liberal Democrats: 15
• Independent: 6
• Wycombe Independents: 6
• Labour: 4
• Independent Network: 2
• Green: 1

Cambridgeshire

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East Cambridgeshire:  The whole council is elected every 4 years, with the next election in 2027. At the 2023 election, the Conservatives retained their majority, with no change in administration. 

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 15
• Liberal Democrats: 13

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Cambridge City: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. At the most recent election (2023), there was no change in administration. Labour retained their majority, but lost 2 seats. The Liberal Democrats gained 1, the Greens gained 1, and the Independents remained steady.

The political balance is as follows:

• Labour: 27
• Liberal Democrats: 10
• Green: 4
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Huntingdonshire: The council is elected in full every four years, with the next scheduled election in 2026. The most recent election was held in 2022, with the Conservatives, in control since 1976, losing 8 of their councillors. The council is therefore under no overall control, resulting in a change in administration. Independents gained 6 seats, the Lib Dems gained 3, Green gained 1, St Neots Independents lost 2 and Labour remained stable on 4.

The political balance is as follows:

• Conservative: 22
• Independents: 11
• Liberal Democrats: 10
• Labour: 4
• St Neots Ind.: 4
• Green: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Peterborough City: The council is elected for three out of every four years. The next election will take place in 2027. At the 2023 election, the council remained under no overall control, with no change in administration. The Conservatives lead a minority administration, having gained 2 seats, while Labour and the Lib Dems remained steady, and the Greens and Independent candidates lost a seat each. Peterborough First won its first ever seats, with 4.

The political balance is as follows:

• Conservative: 30
• Labour: 14
• Liberal Democrats: 8
• Green: 3
• Peterborough First: 4
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

South Cambridgeshire: The council is elected as a whole every four years. The next election will take place in 2026. The most recent elections were held in 2022 and there was no change in administration. The Liberal Democrats retained their large majority, gaining 7 seats, while the Conservatives lost 3, and Labour and Independent candidates each lost 2. The political balance is as follows:

• Liberal Democrats: 37
• Conservative: 8

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Essex

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Basildon: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 14 out of 42 seats were contested at the 2023 election, and there was no change in administration. The Conservatives, who retained control, gained a seat, the Wickford Independents lost a seat, and Labour and Independent candidates remain stable.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 26
• Labour: 10
• Independent: 2
• Non-aligned: 3
• Wickford Independents: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Braintree: The whole council is elected every 4 years. The most recent election was held in 2023. There was no change in administration: the Conservatives remained in control, but with a smaller majority, losing 8 seats. Labour gained 7, Independents gained 4, while the Greens lost 2 and Halstead Residents lost 1.

The political balance is:

• Conservatives: 26
• Labour: 9
• Independent: 7
• Green: 4
• Halstead Residents: 3

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Brentwood: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 12 ward seats were contested in May 2023, with a change in administration. The Conservatives, previously in control, lost 3 seats to the Liberal Democrats. Labour and Independents remained steady. The Conservative loss of majority resulted in a coalition between the Lib Dems and Labour.

The political balance is:

• Conservatives:17
• Liberal Democrats: 17
• Labour: 2
• Independents: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Castle Point: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 14 of 41 ward seats were contested in May 2023. The People’s Independent Party (PIP) gained 6 seats from the Conservatives, strengthening to coalition of the PIP and the Canvey Island Independent Party. There was no change in administration.

The political balance is:

• Canvey Island Independent Party: 16
• Conservatives: 9
• People’s Independent Party: 10

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Chelmsford: The whole council is elected every 4 years. There was no change in administration, with the Liberal Democrats retaining their majority, gaining 2 seats from the South Woodham Ferrers Council Taxpayers Association. Independent and Conservative seats remained stable.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 29
• Conservatives: 21
• Independent: 3
• Vacant: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Colchester: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 17 ward seats were contested in May 2023. Although there was no change to seats, there was a change in administration, as the previous Liberal Democrat, Labour and Green coalition broke down. The council is now run buy a minority Lib Dem administration.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 19
• Liberal Democrats: 15
• Labour: 15
• Green: 2
• Independents: 0

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Epping Forest: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. There are all-up elections in 2024 due to boundary changes. In May 2023 there was no change in administration. The Conservatives lost a seat but retained overall control, while the Liberal Democrats gained 2 and Independents gained 1. Greens and the British Democratic Party lost a seat each.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 35
• Loughton Residents: 13
• Liberal Democrats: 4
• Green: 3
• Independents: 3
• For Britain: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Harlow: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 11 ward seats were contested in May 2023. The was no change in administration, with the Conservatives gaining a seat from Labour.

• Conservatives: 22
• Labour 10

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Maldon: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with the Conservative losing their majority with the loss of 7 seats. Maldon Independents gained 7, Independents lost 7, Lib Dems gained 6 and Labour gained 1. The council remains under no overall control.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 10
• Maldon Independents: 7
• Independents: 7
• Liberal Democrats: 6
• Labour: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Rochford: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with the Conservatives losing their majority. The council is under no overall control.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 14
• Independent: 9
• Liberal Democrats: 8
• Rochford District Residents: 7

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Southend-on-Sea: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 17 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. There was a change in administration: prior to the election, the council was under no overall control, but led by a coalition Labour, Lib Dem and Independent administration. Following the election, the Conservatives formed a minority administration.

• Conservatives: 22
• Labour: 17
• Independents: 7
• Liberal Democrats: 4
• Green: 1

 Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Tendring: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with a coalition of Labour, Lib Dems and Independents taking control of the council.

• Conservatives: 19
• Labour: 8
• Tendring First: 1
• Independent: 16
• Liberal Democrat: 4

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Thurrock: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 ward seats were contested in May 2023. There was no change in administration, as Conservatives retained their majority with a loss of 2 seats. Labour gained 5 seats, Independents gained 1, while Thurrock Independents lost 4.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 26
• Labour: 19
• Independents: 3
• Thurrock Independents: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Uttlesford: The whole council is elected every 4 years. There was no change in administration at the 2023 election. The current administration is run by the Residents for Uttlesford (R4U), who held their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Residents for Uttlesford: 26
• Liberal Democrats: 7
• Conservatives: 4
• Independent: 2

Predictions for 2024: No elections

Hampshire

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Hart: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 11 ward seats were contested on 4 May 2023. There was no change in administration, with no seat changes. There was no change in administration: the council remains under no overall control, being run by a coalition of the Liberal Democrats and Community Campaign Hart.

The current distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 11
• Liberal Democrats: 11
• Community Campaign Hart: 10
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Hertfordshire

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Broxbourne: One-third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 10 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election, in which there was no change in administration. The next election will take place in May 2024.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 27
• Labour: 3

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Dacorum: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration. The Conservatives lost their majority with the loss of 13 seats; the Lib Dems gained 9, Labour 3 and Independents 1. With 28 seats, the Lib Dems gained control of the council. The next election will take place in 2027.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 18
• Liberal Democrats: 28
• Labour: 3
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

East Hertfordshire: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Before the 2023 election, the Conservatives had been in control since 1999. They lost 24 seats, with the Greens gaining 17, the Lib Dems gaining 4 and Labour 3. The result was a change in administration, as the council is now under no overall control, but led by the Greens and Lib Dems in a coalition administration. The next election will take place in 2027.

• Green: 17
• Conservatives: 16
• Liberal Democrats: 10
• Labour: 5

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Hertsmere: The whole council is elected every 4 years. The Conservatives had held a majority since 1999, but following the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, as the council fell under no overall control. A Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition leads the council. The next election will take place in 2027.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 16
• Labour: 14
• Liberal Democrats: 6

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

North Hertfordshire: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. There was no change in administration, and the council remained under no overall control. Labour overtook the Conservatives to become the largest party, and the council is run by a Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition administration. The next election will take place in May 2024, and the election cycle will change, with whole council elections taking place every four years.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour:19
• Conservatives: 15
• Liberal Democrats: 15

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

St Albans: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 18 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election, where there was no change in administration. The council is run by the Liberal Democrats.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 48
• Conservatives: 4
• Independents: 1
• Greens: 2

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024 

Stevenage: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 13 ward seats were contested at the 2023 elections. There was no change in administration, as Labour retained their majority and there was no seat changes. The next election will be made in May 2024.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 24
• Conservatives: 9
• Liberal Democrats: 6

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Three Rivers: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 13 ward seats were contested at the 2023 elections. There was no change in administration, as the Liberal Democrats retained their majority. The next elections will be held in May 2024.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 22
• Conservatives: 11
• Labour: 3
• Green: 2
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Watford: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 12 ward seats were contested at the 2023 elections. There was no change in administration, as the Liberal Democrats retained their majority. The next elections will be held in 2024.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 27
• Labour: 9

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Welwyn Hatfield: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. The Conservatives lost their majority after losing 4 seats, with 2 going to the Liberal Democrats and 2 to Labour. There was therefore a change in administration: although the Conservatives remained the largest party, Labour and the Lib Dems took control of the council as a coalition. The next elections are scheduled for 2024.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 22
• Liberal Democrats: 14
• Labour: 12

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Kent

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Ashford: The whole council is elected every 4 years. The Conservatives retained their majority, although did lose 7 seats. There was no change in administration. The next elections are scheduled for 2027.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 19
• Labour: 11
• Ashford Independents: 9
• Green: 8

Prediction for 2024: No election

Canterbury: The whole council is elected every 4 years. In April 2023, 4 Conservative councillors left the party to form the ‘Independent Serve to Lead Group’, pushing the council under no overall control a month before the election. The Conservatives lost further seats at the election with Labour becoming the largest party. There was therefore a change in administration, with a Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition forming. The next elections are scheduled for 2027.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 18
• Liberal Democrats: 9
• Conservatives: 8
• Greens: 4

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Dartford: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, the Conservatives retained their majority, and there was no change in administration.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 29
• Labour: 11
• Residents: 1
• Green: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Dover: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 elections, the Conservatives lost their majority with the loss of 5 seats. Labour gained control of the council, resulting in a change in administration.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 17
• Conservatives: 14
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Gravesham: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the 2023 election, there was no party majority. Labour gained control of the council, resulting in a change in administration.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 22
• Conservatives: 17

Prediction for 2024: No election

Maidstone: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 18 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. Two weeks before the election, the council went into no overall control, following the resignation of a Conservative councillor. Following the election, the council remained no overall control, with the Conservatives forming the largest party and a minority administration. There was therefore a change in administration.

At the 2024 elections, the format will change. Elections will be held every four years, with the whole council up for re-election.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 24
• Liberal Democrats: 12
• Labour: 6
• Independent: 10

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Medway: The whole council is elected every 4 years. There was a change in administration at the 2023 elections, with Labour gaining control of the council from the Conservatives for the first time since 1998. The next election will be held in 2027.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 33
• Conservatives: 22
• Independent: 4

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Sevenoaks: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 elections, there was no change to administration, although a significant shift in seat share. The Conservatives retained their majority, but lost 13 seats, while the Liberal Democrats gained 11. The Greens gained 4 seats after having no seat share at the last election, while Labour lost their only seat.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 33
• Liberal Democrats: 14
• Green: 4
• Independent: 3

Prediction for 2024: No election

Folkstone and Hythe: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the 2023 election, the council was led by a minority Conservative administration. There was a significant shift in seat share in 2023: the Greens became the largest party, although cam short of gaining control of the council. There was a change in administration, with the Greens and Lib Dems forming a minority administration.

The distribution of power is:

• Green: 11
• Labour:10
• Conservatives: 5
• Liberal Democrats: 2
• Independents: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Swale: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the 2023 election, the council was under no overall control. The Conservatives were the largest party, with the council being led by a rainbow coalition of all the other parties. Following the election, the council remained under no overall control, with Labour becoming the largest party. There was a change in administration, with Labour, the Swale Independents and the Greens forming a coalition.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 15
• Conservatives: 12
• Swale Independents: 12
• Liberal Democrats: 5
• Green: 3

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Thanet: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the election, the council was under no overall control, led by a Conservative minority administration. There was a change in administration, with Labour gaining control of the council.

The new distribution of power is:

• Labour: 30
• Conservatives: 17
• Independents: 4
• Green: 5

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Tonbridge and Malling: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the 2023 election, the Conservatives held a strong majority. There was a change in administration, with the council falling under no overall control. The Conservatives and Independent Alliance formed a coalition administration.

The new distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 20
• Liberal Democrats: 11
• Green: 8
• Labour: 3
• Independent Alliance: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Tunbridge Wells: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. The council was under no overall control prior to the election, being led by a coalition of the Lib Dems, local party Alliance, Labour and an Independent councillor. Following the election, there was no change in administration, with the council remaining under no overall control and being run by the same coalition.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 17
• Conservatives: 11
• Alliance: 12
• Labour: 8
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Norfolk

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Breckland: The entire council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was no change in administration, with the Conservatives retaining their majority. The next election will be held in 2027.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 30
• Labour: 12
• Independents: 5
• Green: 1
• Liberal Democrats: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Broadland: The entire council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with the Conservatives losing their majority. The council is now under no overall control, run by a coalition of the Liberal Democrats, Labour and Greens.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 21
• Liberal Democrat: 14
• Labour: 8
• Green: 4

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Great Yarmouth: The entire council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration. The Conservatives lost their majority, with the council falling under no overall control. A minority Conservative administration formed after the election.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 19
• Labour: 18
• Independent: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

King’s Lynn and West Norfolk: The whole council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with the Conservatives losing their majority. The council is under no overall control and is run by a coalition of the independent councillors, Labour and Liberal Democrats. 

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 21
• Independent: 18
• Labour: 11
• Liberal Democrats: 3
• Green: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

North Norfolk: The whole council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was no change in administration. The Liberal Democrats retained their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrat: 25
• Conservative: 12
• Independent: 3

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Norwich City: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 13 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. There was no change in administration, with Labour retaining their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 23
• Green: 13
• Liberal Democrat: 3

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

South Norfolk: The entire council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was no change to administration, with the Conservatives retaining their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 24
• Liberal Democrat: 11
• Labour: 9
• Independent: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Northamptonshire 

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North Northamptonshire: An inaugural election for the council was held in May 2021, after the merging of four local councils (Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering, and Wellingborough) into one unitary authority. The Conservatives won an outright majority, and currently control the council. The next elections are scheduled for May 2025.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 60
• Labour: 14
• Green: 3
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

West Northamptonshire: An inaugural election for the council was held in May 2021, after the merging of three local councils (Daventry, Northampton, South Northamptonshire) into one unitary authority. The Conservatives won an outright majority, and currently control the council. The next elections are scheduled for May 2025.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 66
• Labour: 20
• Liberal Democrats: 5

Prediction for 2024: No election

Oxfordshire

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Cherwell: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 ward seats were contested in the 2023 election. There was a change in administration: the Conservatives lost their majority and the council fell under no overall control. The Conservatives lead a minority administration after an inability to find an alternative leader who could command a majority.

The new distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 20
• Labour: 12
• Liberal Democrats: 10
• Independents: 3
• Green: 3

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

South Oxfordshire: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the 2023 election, the council was under no overall control, and led by a Liberal Democrat and Green coalition. Following the election, there was a change in administration, with the Lib Dems gaining full control of the council.

The new distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 21
• Green: 8
• Labour: 3
• Henley Residents Group: 3
• Conservatives: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Vale of White Horse: The whole council is elected every 4 years. The Liberal Democrats extended their majority share of seats, while the Conservatives lost all six of theirs. There was therefore no change in administration.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 34
• Green: 4
• Conservatives: 0

Prediction for 2024: No elections

West Oxfordshire: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 17 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. There was no change in administration: the council remained under no overall control, with the same coalition of Liberal Democrats, Labour and Greens continuing to run the council.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 18
• Conservatives: 17
• Labour: 10
• Green: 3
• Independents: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Suffolk

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Babergh: The whole council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, There was no change in administration, as the council remained under no overall control. The Greens replaced the Conservatives as the largest party.

The distribution of power is:

• Green: 10
• Independents: 9
• Conservative: 7
• Liberal Democrats: 5
• Labour:1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Mid Suffolk: The whole council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with the Greens gaining majority; the council has previously been under no overall control.

The distribution of power is:

• Green: 24
• Conservative: 6
• Liberal Democrat: 4

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

East Suffolk: The whole council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration, with the Conservatives losing their majority. The council fell under no overall control, with the Greens as the new largest party.

The distribution of power is:

• Green: 16
• Conservative: 15
• Labour: 12
• Liberal Democrat: 11
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Ipswich: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 seats were contested at the 2023 elections. There was no change in administration, as Labour retained their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Labour: 33
• Conservative: 10
• Liberal Democrat: 3
• Independent: 2

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

West Suffolk: The whole council is elected every four years. At the 2023 election, there was a change in administration: the Conservatives lost their majority, and the council fell under no overall control.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservative: 26
• Independent: 19
• Labour: 17
• Green: 1
• Liberal Democrat: 1

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Surrey

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Elmbridge: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 16 ward seats were contested at the 2023 elections. There was no change in administration, as the council remained under no overall control. The Liberal Democrats became the largest party, and formed a coalition with the Residents’ Association.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 19
• Residents’ Association: 17
• Conservatives: 12

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024 

Epsom and Ewell: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, there was no change in administration, as the Residents’ Association retained their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Residents Association: 26
• Labour: 3
• Liberal Democrats: 4
• Conservative: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Guildford Borough Council: The entire council is elected every four years. Prior to the 2023 election, the council was under no overall control. There was a change in administration, with the Liberal Democrats gaining control.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 25
• Conservatives: 10
• Residents for Guildford and Villages (R4GV): 7
• Labour: 3
• Guildford Greenbelt Group: 3

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Mole Valley: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 13 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. There was no change in administration, as the Liberal Democrats held their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 30
• Conservatives: 3
• Ashtead Independents: 6

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Reigate & Banstead: One third of the council is elected every year, followed by one year without elections. 15 wards were contested in 2023. There was no change in administration, with the Conservatives retaining their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 23
• Green: 11
• Residents’ Association: 6
• Liberal Democrats: 3
• Labour: 1
• Independent: 1

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024

Runnymede: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 14 ward seats were contested in 2023. There was a change in administration, as the Conservatives lost their majority for the first time since 1998, and for only the second time since the first election in 1973. The council is now under no overall control.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 20
• Runnymede Independents: 6
• Labour: 4
• Liberal Democrats: 4
• Green: 2

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024 

Spelthorne: The whole council is elected every 4 years. At the 2023 election, the council remained under no overall control, and there was no change in administration. There were significant seat changes, however, with the Conservatives losing 11 seats, while the Liberal Democrats gained 2, Independents 5, Labour 3, and Greens 1.

The distribution of power is:

• Conservatives: 12
• Liberal Democrats: 10
• Labour: 7
• Independent: 7
• Green: 3

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Surrey Heath: The whole council is elected every 4 years. Prior to the 2023 election, there was no overall majority. There was a change in administration, with the Liberal Democrats gaining control of the council.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 21
• Conservatives: 6
• Independents: 3
• Labour 2
• Green: 0

 Prediction for 2024: No elections 

Tandridge: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 14 wards were contested at the 2023 election. There was no change in administration, as the council remained under no overall control. The council is led by an alliance of the Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group and some independent councillors.

• Independent: 14
• Liberal Democrats: 11
• Conservatives: 9
• Residents’ Association: 8

Prediction for March 2024: To be made in March 2024

Waverley: The whole council is elected every 4 years. The council remained under no overall control and there was no change in administration, although there was a significant change in seat share, with the Liberal Democrats gaining 5, and the Conservatives losing 8.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 22
• Residents: 13
• Conservatives: 10
• Labour 2
• Green: 1
• Independents: 2

Prediction for 2024: No elections

Woking: One third of the council is elected each year, followed by one year without elections. 14 ward seats were contested at the 2023 election. There was no change in administration, as the Liberal Democrats retained their majority.

The distribution of power is:

• Liberal Democrats: 20
• Conservatives: 4
• Independents: 3
• Labour: 3

Prediction for 2024: To be made in March 2024