February national update

• Inflation rate – Inflation rose to 3.4% for the year to December 2025, driven by higher tobacco prices and airfares, according to the Office for National Statistics. The Bank of England (BoE) target inflation rate is 2%.
• Interest rate – The BoE cut interest rates to 3.75% at its meeting on the 18 December. This cut was to boost the UK’s sluggish economy, with a committee vote of 5-4 in favour. Most analysts expect two or three further rate cuts in 2026, but not at the next meeting, on Thursday 5 February the interest rate was held at the current 3.75%.
• GDP growth – The economy grew by 0.3% in November, faster than expected: analysts were expecting a 0.1% increase. In a press release issued by EY on the 2 February of this year, the EY ITEM Club Winter Forecast predicts UK GDP growth of 0.9% for this year, which represents a small upgrade on the 0.8% projected in November.
• Pound Sterling – Sterling has slightly strengthened against the Euro, currently at €1.16 to the pound (04/02/26). With the current uncertain geopolitical and national landscape, it is hard to predict where Sterling will go next. Against the Dollar, the pound has strengthened, reaching $1.37 to the pound (04/02/26).
• House prices – According to Forbes in early February, average property values in January edged up by 0.3% compared to the previous month and stood 1% higher than the same month last year. Robert Gardner, the chief economist at Nationwide, said that ‘Housing market activity is likely to recover in the coming quarters – especially if the improving affordability trend seen last year is maintained’. Over the course of last year, the Office for National Statistics stated in a press release from 21 January 2026, that average UK house prices increased by 2.5% to £271,000 in the 12 months to November 2025.
• Unemployment – Unemployment rose to 5.1% in the three months to November, 2025, with the next data set due on the 17 February 2026. This is a four-year high and up from 4.4% a year earlier. Responding to the latest employment figures, Allen Simpson, chief executive of the lobby group, UK Hospitality, said: ‘Hospitality is being hit by costs at every angle’.

• English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill – This is a Bill to enact the local government reform changes to combined authorities, combined county authorities and police and crime commissioners. It is currently in the House of Lords at Committee stage.
• Agricultural Land (Planning) Bill – This is a Private Members Bill, sponsored by the Conservative MP for Faversham and Mid Kent, Helen Whately, which aims to prohibit the granting of planning permission in respect of Grade 1 agricultural land and to provide for exemptions from that prohibition. The Bill started in the House of Commons and is currently at Second Reading, which took place on 28/11/25. Given it is a Private Members Bill it is unlikely to be given further Parliamentary time by the UK Labour Government.
• Date for the King’s Speech in 2026 – According to the BBC, the King’s speech (and the government’s forthcoming legislative agenda for 2026) is set to be unveiled in the immediate aftermath of the May local elections. Planning and infrastructure related legislation is likely to feature, with the speech being pencilled in for the 12 or 13 May of this year.

• During early February 2026, the Metropolitan Police announced that it had launched a criminal investigation into Lord Peter Mandelson following claims he passed on market-sensitive information to Jeffrey Epstein. Peter Mandelson has also stepped down from the House of Lords (effective on the 04/02/26). This is a moment of deep crisis for the current UK Government, ahead of the Gorton and Denton by-election on Thursday 26th February 2026. A leadership challenge (to Sir Keir Starmer) could take place if Labour loses this election or goes badly in the local elections in May.
• In an article from the 21 January 2026, it was announced by YouGov that national opinion polls are continuing to show shifting voting patterns. Using a sample of over 17,000 UK citizens, the polling analysis showed that support for Reform UK is highest amongst former Vote Leave voters and those from routine and manual occupations, peaking at those people in their 60’s. The analysis also showed that the Greens now lead among the under 30s, including holding a 37% vote share amongst 18-24 year olds. Crucially, just 38% of 2024 Labour voters still support the party, with 15% switching to the Greens, 9% to the Liberal Democrats and 8% to Reform UK. This shows how dissatisfied UK voters are at the current UK Government.
• On the 29 January 2026, it was announced that the number of planning applications of all types for new homes in England is at its highest level for four years, according to new data shared with BBC Verify. Planning applications for 335,000 homes outside London were lodged in 2025, up by 60% on 2024, according to the National Planning Portal. The rise could be down to the revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which relaxes rules for certain residential development schemes.