March National Update

National Update

Economy:

• Inflation rates – As of 04/03/26, the inflation rate is 3%, with the Bank of England (BoE) target being 2%. At its last meeting on 05/02/26, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said that they were expecting inflation ‘to be back to our 2% target this spring’. However, the current conflict in the Middle East (and Iran) will likely impact upon this.
• Interest rates – The BoE held interest rates at 3.75% at its meeting on 05/02/26. Most analysts expect two or three rate cuts during 2026. The conflict in the Middle East, however, is expected to impact upon the MPC’s decision making at its next meeting on 19/03/26. There is speculation that interest rates could rise in the future given the current global political environment.
• GDP growth – The economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025. This was the same growth rate as in Q3 but lower than in Q1 and Q2 2025. Q1 2026 growth is expected to be slower than anticipated given the current global political uncertainties.
• Pound Sterling – Sterling has slightly strengthened against the Euro, currently at €1.15 to the pound (04/03/26), which is where it was at on 06/02/26. With the current uncertain geopolitical and national landscape, it is hard to predict where Sterling will go next. Against the Dollar, the pound has weakened, reaching $1.34 to the pound (04/03/26).
• House market prices – On 02/03/26, The Guardian newspaper reported that house prices increased in February, with the average price of a home rising to £273,176 last month, up by 0.3% from the month before, according to the Nationwide building society. This was above analysts’ forecasts of a 0.2% gain. Commenting on the figure, Jason Tebb, the President of the property website OnTheMarket, said: ‘Housing market activity and sentiment have continued to pick up this year, with buyers and sellers proceeding with their moves with more clarity and confidence, particularly as the spring forecast has not attracted anything like the same level of negative speculation as November’s budget’.
• Unemployment rates – Unemployment rose again in February to 5.2% (recording unemployment from October to December 2025). The Office for National Statistics Labour market overview for February 2026 estimated that payrolled employees in the UK fell by 121,000 between December 2024 and December 2025.

Activity and Bills in Parliament:

• English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill – This is a bill to enact the local government reform changes to combined authorities, combined county authorities and police and crime commissioners. It is currently in the House of Lords at Committee stage, which started on 20/01/26 and is ongoing (at Committee stage).
• Agricultural Land (Planning) Bill – This is a Private Members Bill, sponsored by the Conservative MP for Faversham and Mid Kent, Helen Whately, which aims to prohibit the granting of planning permission in respect of Grade 1 agricultural land and to provide for exemptions from that prohibition. The Bill started in the House of Commons and is currently at Second Reading, which took place on 28/11/25. Given it is a Private Members Bill it is unlikely to be given further Parliamentary time by the UK Labour Government.
• Date for the Kings Speech in 2026 – The King’s speech (and the government’s forthcoming legislative agenda for 2026 and the next Parliamentary term) is set to be unveiled in the immediate aftermath of the May 2026 local elections. Planning and infrastructure related legislation is likely to feature, with the speech being pencilled in for the 12 or 13 May of this year. However, the Prime Minister could be facing a leadership challenge after the May local elections and there is currently no fixed date.  

Current affairs:

• The Chancellor’s Spring Statement was delivered in the House of Commons on 04/03/26. Unemployment is expected to peak at 5.3% this year and then fall gradually to 4.1% by 2030, as quoted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The updated growth forecasts from the OBR (as quoted by the Chancellor) are 1.1% UK growth in 2026, 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028 and 1.5% in both 2029 and 2030. However, these forecasts were estimated before the current Middle East crisis, with the OBR now stating that it ‘could have very significant impacts on the global and UK economies’.
• In the early morning of Friday 27^th February it was announced that the Green Party candidate, Hannah Spencer, had won the Gorton and Denton by-election. The newly elected MP said after the victory that voters had ‘rejected hate and embraced hope’ as she pledged to ‘end local fly-tipping and introduce rent controls’. This had previously been a safe Labour Party seat and subsequently the Green Party came second in a national poll of voting intentions at the next general election.
• On 03/03/26 the political website, Politico, announced that the Green Party were just two points behind the Reform Party in a new YouGov survey. The latest voting intention study (from YouGov) puts the Greens on 21%, just behind Reform on 23%. The Labour Party and the Conservatives were in joint third place on 16%.